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Mulder, P. and Tembe, J. (2008), Rural electrification in an imperfect world: a case study from Mozambique. Energy Policy 36, pp. 2785–94. Electricity is universally recognized as a necessary, although not sufficient, requirement for social and economic development. However, increasing access to electricity in developing countries has proven to be difficult and expensive, particularly in rural areas. In this article, we analyze the dynamics of the relationship between electricity and socio-economic development by means of a cost–benefit analysis of a typical rural electrification project in Mozambique, assessing the impact of electricity on households, education, agro-business, commerce, and the public sector. We show that rural electrification can be commercially viable and cause structural transformation in rural areas within a short period of time. Finally, illustrated by the actual policy practice in Mozambique, we argue that low institutional quality is a key barrier to promote increased access to electricity for the poor.
Data sets available |
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Mulder, P., H.L.F. de Groot (2007), Sectoral Energy- and Labour Productivity Convergence, Environmental and Resource Economics, 36, pp. 85-11 This paper empirically investigates the development of cross-country differences in energy- and labour productivity. The analysis is performed at a detailed sectoral level for 14 OECD countries, covering the period 1970–1997. A σ-convergence analysis reveals that the development over time of the cross-country variation in productivity performance differs across sectors as well as across different levels of aggregation. Both patterns of convergence as well as divergence are found. Cross-country variation of productivity levels is typically larger for energy than for labour. A β-convergence analysis provides support for the hypothesis that in most sectors lagging countries tend to catch up with technological leaders, in particular in terms of energy productivity. Moreover, the results show that convergence is conditional, meaning that productivity levels converge to country-specific steady states. Energy prices and wages are shown to positively affect energy- and labour-productivity growth, respectively. We also find evidence for the importance of economies of scale, whereas the investment share, openness and specialization play only a modest role in explaining cross-country variation in energy- and labour-productivity growth. |
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Miketa, A. and P. Mulder (2005), Energy-Productivity across Developed and Developing Countries in 10 Manufacturing Sectors: Patterns of Growth and Convergence, Energy Economics 27, pp. 429-453 This paper provides an empirical analysis of energy-productivity convergence across 56 developed and developing countries, in 10 manufacturing sectors, for the period 1971–1995. We find that, except for the non-ferrous metals sector, cross-country differences in absolute energy-productivity levels tend to decline, particularly in the less energy-intensive industries. Testing for the catch-up hypothesis using panel data confirms that in all manufacturing sectors energy-productivity growth is, in general, relatively high in countries that initially lag behind in terms of energy-productivity levels. At the same time, cross-country differences in energy-productivity performance seem to be persistent; convergence is found to be local rather than global, with countries converging to different steady states and several failing to catch up. Finally, we find that country-specific factors, such as energy price and investment ratio, do explain the observed cross-country differences in energy-productivity performance, but only to a very limited extent.
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Mulder, P. (2004), NEMO: CPB’s energievraagmodel tussen top-down and bottom-up (‘NEMO: CPB’s energy demand model between top-downand bottom-up’), Kwartaalschrift Economie; 1(2), pp. 131-153  Dit artikel doet verslag van het doorrekenen van vier beleidsscenario’s met behulp van
NEMO, het Nederlandse energievraagmodel van het Centraal Planbureau (CPB). Uit de
modelberekeningen blijkt dat een emissieheffing op CO2 tot aanzienlijke effecten in termen
van energiebesparing kan leiden, terwijl de effecten van een investeringssubsidie en een
rentabiliteitsmaatregel naar verwachting zeer beperkt zullen zijn. Deze conclusies zijn echter
gebonden aan de beperkte mogelijkheden om genoemde beleidsmaatregelen in NEMO
expliciet door te rekenen. De belangrijkste reden hiervoor is dat NEMO een top-down model
is waarin micro-economische en technologische bottom-up gegevens over technologieën
noodzakelijkerwijs slechts op gestileerde wijze zijn opgenomen via geschatte trendparameters
en elasticiteiten. De belangrijkste toegevoegde waarde van NEMO is dat het,
door de koppeling met het economische bedrijfstakkenmodel ATHENA, geschikt is voor een
analyse van het effect van milieubeleidsmaatregelen op het energiegebruik en de energievoorziening,
alsook op de (macro-economische) kosten en de eventuele verschuiving in de
sectorstructuur van de Nederlandse economie. |
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Mulder, P., H.L.F. de Groot and M.W. Hofkes (2003), Explaining Slow Diffusion of Energy-Saving Technologies. A vintage model with returns to diversity and learning-by-using, Resource and Energy Economics 25, pp.105-126. This paper studies the adoption and diffusion of energy-saving technologies in a vintage model. An important characteristic of the model is that vintages are complementary: there are returns to diversity of using a mix of vintages. We analyse how diffusion patterns and adoption behaviour are affected by complementarity and learning-by-using. It is shown that the stronger the complementarity between different vintages and the stronger the learning-by-using, the longer it takes before firms scrap old vintages. We argue that this is a relevant part of the explanation for the observed slow diffusion of energy-saving technologies. Finally, we show that an energy price tax reduces energy consumption, because it speeds up the diffusion of new energy-saving technologies and induces substitution from capital to labour.
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Mulder, P., H.L.F. de Groot and M.W. Hofkes (2003), Economic Growth and Technological Change. A comparison of insights from a neo-classical and evolutionary perspective, Technological Forecasting and Social Change , 69, pp. 110-134
Over the last two decades, dissatisfaction with the traditional Solow-Swan model of economic growth resulted in two new classes of models of economic growth and technological change: neo-classical endogenous growth models, and evolutionary growth models. The first class of models has been labeled endogenous, because of its key feature of endogenizing technological change. The second class of models endogenizes technological change as well, but according to an evolutionary view on economic growth and technological change. In this paper we discuss the insights from both the neo-classical and the evolutionary perspectives. It is argued that in evolutionary models technological and behavioral diversity, uncertainty, path dependency, and irreversibility are elaborated in a more sophisticated and explicit way than in neo-classical growth models. However, this level of microeconomic diversity comes at a certain price. Due to the complexity of the models, which preclude analytical tractability, the mechanisms behind the aggregate dynamics are not always clearly exposed. In addition, it will be argued that the neo-classical and the evolutionary approach are converging in the Schumpeterian framework. The latter framework is developed in both classes of models as a means for theorizing on technological change. A challenging task for further research is to combine the fruitful insights of both the neo-classical and the evolutionary approach to improve our understanding of complex processes of technological change in relation to other micro- and macroeconomic processes.
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Den Butter, F.A.G., H.L.F. de Groot and P. Mulder (2003), Energie en Arbeid: Vrienden of Vijanden? (‘Energy and Labour: Friends or Foes?’), Economisch Statistische Berichten , 88, no.4407, pp. 295-297 Zit er tussen energie- en arbeidsproductiviteit een afruil of stimuleren ze elkaar juist? Dit artikel biedt
een empirische analyse van de ontwikkeling van de arbeids- en energieproductiviteit in Nederland. Daarbij komt de vraag aan de orde hoe arbeids- en energieproductiviteit zich op sectoraal niveau hebben ontwikkeld, zowel in absoluut als relatief opzicht. |
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Mulder, P. and J.C.J.M. van den Bergh (2001), Evolutionary Economic Theories of Sustainable Development, Growth and Change, 32, pp. 110-134 Sustainable development has become the dominant concept in the study of interactions between the economy and the biophysical environment, as well as a generally accepted goal of environmental policy. So far, economists have predominantly applied standard or neo-classical theory to environmental economic problems. In this article it will be argued that to fully understand a transformation of the economic system towards sustainability, standard environmental economics needs to be complemented by an evolutionary approach, that focuses the attention on irreversible, path-dependent change and long-run mutual selection of environmental and economic processes and systems. The article provides an overview of the main existing evolutionary contributions to environmental economics. Furthermore, a number of research directions of an evolutionary approach in environmental economics are discussed. It is suggested that such an approach should go beyond evolutionary theories of technical change, which dominate evolutionary economics so far, by including co-evolution of economy and environment, sustainable consumption, endogenous preference change, and climate change modeling. |
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Mulder, P. (2005). The Economics of Technology Diffusion and Energy Efficiency. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Technological change plays a crucial role in realizing energy efficiency improvements and, therefore, in ameliorating the conflict between economic growth and environmental quality. However, the diffusion of new technologies can prove a costly and lengthy process, meaning that many firms do not invest in best-practice technologies. The author offers important new explanations for this energy-efficiency paradox.
‘This book is a path-breaking work' – Vernon W. Ruttan, University of Minnesota, Twin Cities, US
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Bucuane, A.J. and P. Mulder (2009), Prospects for an electricity tax, in: Arndt, C. and F. Tarp (eds.), Taxation in a Low-Income Economy – The case of Mozambique, pp.302-327. London/NewYork: Routledge. In this paper we explore the arguments, the appropriate level and tax base as well as potential revenues of a tax on electricity consumption by mega projects and a tax on electricity production, respectively. We argue that mega projects offer a good opportunity to extend the tax base in Mozambique from the point of view of raising government revenues and compensation for negative environmental and social externalities. We conclude that in particular a tax on electricity production seems a promising instrument. We estimate annual tax revenues of a 0.1-0.2 US$c/kWh tax on electricity production in the range of US$ 16-84 million during the period 2007-2020. By and large the burden of a tax on electricity production in Mozambique will fall on neighbouring countries due to the large share of electricity generation earmarked for export. We show that the regional electricity market provides ample space to increase electricity prices without compromising Mozambique’s comparative advantage in electricity production. |
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Bucuane, A.J. and P. Mulder (2009), Expanding exploitation of natural resources in Mozambique: Will it be a blessing or a curse?, in: Brito, L. de, C. Castel-Branco, S. Chichava and A. Fransisco (eds.), Reflecting on Economic Questions, pp. 104-153. Maputo: IESE. Mozambique has considerable quantities of natural resources, of which the major part is yet to be explored. The Government of Mozambique is determined to extract and export its natural resource potential as fast as possible, supposing that this will positively contribute to economic growth and poverty reduction. However, many resource rich countries are among the poorest nations in the world, in spite of decennia-long exploration of their natural wealth. This so-called ‘paradox of plenty’ or ‘resource curse’ raises the question whether the foreseen exploration of natural resources in Mozambique will pose a threat rather than a blessing to its economic development. In this paper we first estimate the potential resource wealth of Mozambique in comparison to other countries. Next, we briefly review the growing body of literature on the existence and determinants of a natural resource curse. Then we evaluate the risk of a resource curse to occur in Mozambique in the (near) future. Finally, we try to come up with suggestions to avert a Mozambican resource curse. |
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Mulder, P. and J.C.J.M. van den Bergh (2008), Evolutionary Economic Theories of Sustainable Development, in: Witt, U. (ed.), Recent Developments In Evolutionary Economics, vol. 228 in The International Library of Critical Writings in Economics series. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Reprint of: Mulder, P. and J.C.J.M. van den Bergh (2001), Evolutionary Economic Theories of Sustainable Development, Growth and Change, 32, pp. 110-134 |
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Mulder, P., H.L.F. de Groot (2007), Sectoral Energy- and Labour Productivity Convergence, in: Bretschger, L. and S. Smulders (eds.), Sustainable Resource Use and Economic Dynamics, pp. 165-190. Dordrecht: Springer Reprint of: Mulder, P., H.L.F. de Groot (2007), Sectoral Energy- and Labour Productivity Convergence, Environmental and Resource Economics, 36, pp. 85-112 |
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De Groot, H.L.F., M.W. Hofkes and P. Mulder (2004), A Vintage Model of Technology Diffusion: The effects of learning-by-doing and returns to diversity, in: Brakman and Heijdra (eds), The Monopolistic Competition Revolution after Twenty-Five Years, pp.356-372. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. |
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Mulder, P. H.L.F. de Groot and F.A.G. den Butter (2004). De Energie- en Arbeidsproductiviteit van Nederland in Internationaal Perspectief (‘Dutch energy- and Labour-productivity in international perspective’), in: H.R.J. Vollebergh, W. van Groenendaal, M.W. Hofkes and R. Kemp (eds), Milieubeleid, Technologische Ontwikkeling en de Nederlandse Economie, Den Haag, SDU, pp. 101-125. |
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De Groot, H.L.F., M.W. Hofkes, P. Mulder and J.A. Smulders (2004). Dynamiek van Technologie-Ontwikkeling: Innovatie, Adoptie en Diffusie (‘Dynamics of technology development: innovation, adoption and diffusion’), in: H.R.J. Vollebergh, W. van Groenendaal, M.W. Hofkes and R. Kemp (eds), Milieubeleid en Technologische Ontwikkeling in de Nederlandse Economie, Den Haag, SDU, pp. 45-63. |
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Mulder, P. (2007). Energy Outlook for Mozambique, DNEAP Discussion Paper No.53E, Maputo: Ministry of Planning and Development. |
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Bucuane, A. and P. Mulder (2007). Exploring Natural Resources in Mozambique. Will it be a blessing or a curse?, DNEAP Discussion Paper No.54E, Maputo: Ministry of Planning and Development. Download Mozambique has considerable quantities of natural resources, of which the major part is yet to be explored. The Government of Mozambique is determined to extract and export its natural resource potential as fast as possible, supposing that this will positively contribute to economic growth and poverty reduction. However, many resource rich countries are among the poorest nations in the world, in spite of decennia-long exploration of their natural wealth. This so-called ‘paradox of plenty’ or ‘resource curse’ raises the question whether the foreseen exploration of natural resources in Mozambique will pose a serious threat rather than a blessing to its economic development. In this paper we first estimate the potential resource wealth of Mozambique in comparison to other countries. Next, we briefly review the growing body of literature on the existence and determinants of a natural resource curse. Then we evaluate the risk of a resource curse to occur in Mozambique in the (near) future. Finally, we try to come up with suggestions to avert a Mozambican resource curse |
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Bucuane, A. and P. Mulder (2007). Exploring an Electricity Tax on Mega Projects in Mozambique, DNEAP Discussion Paper No.37E, Maputo: Ministry of Planning and Development. |
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Mulder, P. and J. Tembe (2006). Rural Electrification in Mozambique. Is it worth the Investment?, DNEAP Discussion Paper No.36E, Maputo: Ministry of Planning and Development. |
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Arndt, C., L. Matsinhe, P. Mulder, E. Paulo, J.E. Van Dunem (2005). O Impacto do Aumento do Preço do Petróleo na Economia Moçambicana (‘Impact of the Oil Price Increase on the Mozambican Economy’), DNEAP Discussion Papers No.19P, Maputo: Ministry of Planning and Development. |
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Mulder, P. and H.L.F. de Groot (2004), Sectoral Energy- and Labour Productivity Convergence, Tinbergen Discussion Paper, nr. 04-003/3, Amsterdam/Rotterdam: Tinbergen Institute. Also as: This paper provides an empirical analysis of energy- and labour-productivity convergence at a detailed sectoral level for 14 OECD countries, covering the period 1970-1997. A sigma-convergence analysis shows that the development of cross-country variation in productivity performance depends on the level of aggregation. Both patterns of convergence as well as divergence are found. A beta-convergence analysis provides support for the hypothesis that in most sectors lagging countries tend to catch up with technological leaders, in particular in terms of energy productivity. Moreover, the results show that convergence is conditional rather than unconditional, meaning that productivity levels converge to country-specific steady states, and that cross-country differences of energy-productivity levels are substantially larger than of labour-productivity levels at all levels of sectoral aggregation. Finally, searching for the fundamentals determining cross-country productivity differentials reveals a positive productivity effect of energy prices and economies of scale in several sectors, while wages, investment share, openness and specialization play only a very limited role in explaining (cross-country differences in) energy- and labour-productivity growth. |
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Mulder, P. and H.L.F. de Groot (2004), Decoupling Economic Growth and Energy Use. An Empirical Cross-Country Analysis for 10 Manufacturing Sectors, Tinbergen Discussion Paper, nr. 04-005/3, Amsterdam/Rotterdam: Tinbergen Institute. This paper provides an empirical analysis of decoupling economic growth and energy use and its various determinants by exploring trends in energy- and labour productivity across 10 manufacturing sectors and 14 OECD countries for the period 1970-1997. We explicitly aim to trace back aggregate developments in the manufacturing sector to developments at the level of individual subsectors. A cross-country decomposition analysis reveals that in some countries structural changes contributed considerably to aggregate manufacturing energyproductivity growth and, hence, to decoupling, while in other countries they partly offset energy-efficiency improvements. In contrast, structural changes only play a minor role in explaining aggregate manufacturing labour-productivity developments. Furthermore, we find labour-productivity growth to be higher on average than energy-productivity growth. Over
time, this bias towards labour-productivity growth is increasing in the aggregate manufacturing sector, while it is decreasing in most manufacturing subsectors.
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Mulder, P. and H.L.F. de Groot (2004), International comparisons of sectoral energy- and labour- productivity performance. Stylised facts and decomposition of trends, Tinbergen Discussion Paper, nr. 04-007/3, Amsterdam-Rotterdam: Tinbergen Institute. Also as: This paper addresses the interplay between economic growth, energy use, change in sectoral composition and technological change, by exploring trends in energy- and labour productivity development for 14 OECD countries and four sectors over the period 1970-1997. A crosscountry decomposition analysis reveals that in some countries structural changes contributed considerably to macroeconomic energy-productivity growth while in other countries they partly offset energy-efficiency improvements. In contrast, structural changes only play a minor role in explaining macroeconomic labour-productivity developments. We also find labour productivity growth to be higher on average than energy productivity growth. Over time, this bias towards labour productivity growth is increasing in Transport, Agriculture and Manufacturing, while it is decreasing in Services. |
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Miketa, A. and P. Mulder (2003). Energy-Productivity across Developed and Developing Countries in 10 Manufacturing Sectors, IIASA Interim Report IR-03-068, Laxenburg: IIASA. This paper provides an empirical analysis of energy-productivity convergence across 56 developed and developing countries, in 10 manufacturing sectors, for the period 1971 to 1995. We find that, except for the non-ferrous metals sector, cross-country differences in absolute energy-productivity levels tend to decline, particularly in the less energyintensive industries. Testing for the catch-up hypothesis using panel data confirms that in all manufacturing sectors energy-productivity growth is, in general, relatively high in countries that initially lag behind in terms of energy-productivity levels. At the same time, cross-country differences in energy-productivity performance seem to be persistent; convergence is found to be country-specific rather than global, with countries converging to different steady states and several failing to catch up. Finally, we find that country-specific factors, such as energy price and investment ratio, do explain the observed cross-country differences in energy-productivity performance, but only to a
very limited extent. Hence, further research is needed to identify what accounts for the observed persistence in cross-country energy-productivity differentials. |
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De Groot, H.L.F., P. Mulder and D.P. van Soest (2002). Subsidising the Adoption of Energy-Saving Technologies: Analyzing the Impact of Uncertainty, Learning and Maturation, OCFEB Research Memorandum, no. 0201, Rotterdam: OCFEB. As part of the Kyoto Protocol, many countries have committed themselves to substantially reduce the emission of greenhouse gases within a politically imposed time constraint. Investment subsidies can be an important instrument to stimulate the adoption of energy-saving technologies to achieve emission reduction targets. This paper addresses the impact of adoption subsidies on the amount of energy savings, taking into account both the endogenous and uncertain nature of technological progress. Neglecting these two characteristics of technological progress tends to result in overestimation of the short-run effectiveness of investment subsidies, whereas the longrun effects are ambiguous. |
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Mulder, P. and J. C.J.M. van den Bergh (1999). Evolutionary Economic Theories of Sustainable Development, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-038/1, Amsterdam/Rotterdam: Tinbergen Institute. |
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Linda van de Kamp & Peter Mulder (2009), Van de prins geen kwaad, Volkskrant 03-10-2009, Opinie Er is toenemend gedoe over het vakantiehuis van de kroonprins. Steeds vaker klinkt hardop de vraag of Willem-Alexander de bouw van zijn vakantievilla aan de Mozambikaanse kust niet beter kan staken vanwege alle problemen die er zouden zijn. Het heeft zelfs geleid tot Kamervragen en een officiële reactie van de minister-president. De affaire zegt echter vooral iets over onze achterhaalde kijk op Afrika en over luie journalistiek. |
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Mulder, P. (2008), Samaritanendom, Radix 34(3), pp. 146-176. In dit essay wordt de stelling verdedigd dat ontwikkelingshulp de armoede in de wereld niet structureel kan
terugdringen, en dat hulp daar ook niet op gericht moet zijn. Ontwikkelingshulp mislukt op grote schaal, niet alleen
vanwege allerlei missers en wantoestanden in de praktijk van ontwikkelingssamenwerking, maar vooral omdat de
dieperliggende oorzaken van armoede in beginsel buiten het bereik van hulporganisaties liggen. Armoede getuigt
van gebrekkige economische ontwikkeling, en dit laatste is een complex proces met diepe wortels in een
samenleving. Vastgelopen economieën trek je om die reden niet zomaar vlot en zeker niet van buitenaf, nota bene
met giften. Een groot deel van de ontwikkelingshulp is daarom gekheid, alle goede bedoelingen ten spijt.
Hulporganisaties doen er goed aan zich niet langer in te laten met de illusie van ontwikkeling en vooruitgang maar
zich te concentreren op hun kerntaak: goed doen in een kansloze omgeving. Dit vereist kritische zelfreflectie en
inkeer, bij hulporganisaties maar ook bij hun donateurs. |
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Mulder, P. and H.L.F. de Groot (2002). Leren Vereist Investeren, Economisch Statistische Berichten, 85, no.4284, pp. 980-982. |
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Mulder, P. (2002), Globalisering, of hoe meer mensen meer met elkaar te maken hebben, Radix 28 (2002) pp.159-168. |
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De Groot, H.L.F. and P. Mulder (2000). Leren, Weten en Vergeten, Economisch Statistische Berichten 85, no.4270, p.687. |
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De Beer, J., M. Kerssemeeckers, R. Aalbers, H.R.J. Vollebergh, I. Ossokina, P. Mulder and K. Blok (2000), Effectiviteit Energiesubsidies, Report for Werkgroep IBO Energiesubsidies, Utrecht: Ecofys. |